Scenario planning
Handling uncertainty smartly
Get a grip on an uncertain future
The external environment is becoming increasingly unpredictable. Traditional forms of forecasting and strategy development are therefore too rigid. It’s not about certainties, but about uncertainties that should take center stage. And how you respond to those uncertainties.
Scenario planning is a method in which you develop multiple plausible future scenarios to explore the evolution of core uncertainties and the opportunities and risks they entail. Scenario planning helps organizations learn from changes in the external world and develop strategies accordingly.
Future scenarios
In scenario planning, you create four different future scenarios. These scenarios are placed on an axis formed by two core uncertainties: developments that have a significant impact and are unpredictable.
Scenario planning in 5 steps
Scope
The first step determines the direction of the research. The organization’s most important strategic question forms the starting point of the scope. Based on this question, you choose a time horizon, set boundaries, and select stakeholders.
Trends
The second step involves an analysis of the external environment. The community gathers trends by selecting developments from the macro-trends database. Additionally, they brainstorm trends in the organization’s immediate environment.
Trend analysis
The third step consists of an analysis of the gathered trends. You score the trends based on their interdependence, unpredictability, and impact on the research question. The goal of this phase is to identify core uncertainties.
Scenarios
In the fourth step, you develop the scenarios. The core uncertainties form the basis for the axis defining the four scenarios. These scenarios are plausible future images developed in collaboration with the community.
Options
In the fifth step, you determine how the organization can succeed in the different scenarios. Through brainstorming, the community defines strategic options. Each option receives a score for its relevance in a specific scenario.
Gain control over uncertainty.
With Social Scenario Planning, you create future scenarios together.
Scenario planning in a week
Read the definitive book on scenario planning! Familiarize yourself with the method. Learn how to make future-proof decisions in five steps.
‘Scenarioplanning in a week’ is written by our co-founder Michiel de Vries and Jeroen Toet.
